As Roger Federer enters the most important year of his brilliant career, he must have a lot on his mind. For the first time since 2004, he enters the new season chasing the top player on tour — and that chase is clearly more challenging after World No. 1 Rafael Nadal, who won a grueling five-set marathon match that spanned a record 5 hours, 14 minutes in the semifinals, shrugged off any lingering fatigue and gave Federer a gut-wrenching five-set loss in Sunday's Australian Open final.
The tears Federer shed show how much he cares and how haunted he has become by Nadal, who has scored five straight victories over the once-invincible Swiss to seize a 13-6 advantage in their head-to-head series.
Let's be honest: Roger Federer is now a vulnerable No. 2. For most players, this would be no disgrace. But for Fed, ranked among the greatest ever to play the game, this is a troubling development. The alarm bells are ringing somberly in the tennis media. They're playing a slow dirge instead of a lively tune. The articles are fearful of Fed's swift decline from god-like glory to earthly mortality. But, before we bronze Fed and set him on his well-deserved pedestal in the Hall of Fame, there's reason to believe reports of his demise are greatly exaggerated.
Before you start rolling your eyes at the notion of a Roger revival — especially the day after Rafa reduced him to tears — hear me out.
Due to a mild case of mononucleosis he contracted at the end of 2007, Federer didn't get off to a great start last year. After reaching ten consecutive major finals, Fed fell to the surging Serbian, Novak Djokovic, in the Oz semifinal. Lingering effects of the disease cramped Roger's efforts to find his legendary form. Despite his struggles, he still reached the finals in the last three majors of 2008; competed in one of the best Wimbledon matches ever and won the US Open. Lesser players would surrender a body part to achieve these feats in a single career. Nevertheless, we measure Roger with a longer yard stick.
Federer faces three challenges this year: matching Pete Sampras' record 14 major wins; beating Rafa more times than Nadal beats him and snatching back the top spot in men's tennis. These are daunting tasks, but he can bank them all — even after Nadal ripped his heart out again in beating Federer for the fifth straight time in a final. In total, this will be a smaller burden than his illness-plagued Olympic season.
So, how can Roger get his groove back in 2009? There's some good news and some bad news. Let's look at the bad news first.
Roger's nemesis, Nadal, is the embodiment of all the monsters in Homer's epic poems, the Iliad and Odyssey. A great warrior needs a great dragon to slay. Hollywood's central casting couldn't dream up a more formidable foe than the Raging Bull from Mallorca. It's the white knight versus Godzilla. A modern match-up would pit Muhammad Ali against Joe Frazier. Yet, this isn't a struggle of good versus evil. It's the dramatic clash of wills and skills to make tennis history.
Rafa's 13-6 win-loss record over Raja is a bit deceptive. Ten of the 19 matches were played on clay which heavily favored Nadal. Despite this disadvantage, Fed still posts the second-best clay court record on the pro tour. When Rafa says Raja is the best player alive, he really means it.
Rafa beats Raja because he's bigger, stronger, tougher, younger and possesses a limitless will to win. Even the mighty Raja folds in five sets from the fierce force of Rafa's shots. More important, Nadal's right-to-left hand conversion makes him unique on tour. He has the power of two forehands. The only one with a similar profile in recent memory was the twin-fisted Monica Seles. She was the Rafa of her day in her battles with Steffi Graf, though Monica was not nearly as athletically gifted as Rafa. Nadal pounded Fed for more than three years in an unrelenting battle for the top spot in men's tennis. He simply wouldn't be denied. Fed's flagging resistance to the pressure cost him his crown and probably his health. The younger, stronger man prevailed.
Now, what can Roger do about this situation? Here's the good news as he enters the fray in 2009.
While Rafa has the edge on Raja in every athletic and age category, this margin is razor thin. Fed's mono scare widened this distance somewhat. Yet, Roger's win at the 2008 US Open over the great Scot, Andy Murray, should help him believe his illness is gone. Rafa racked up one of the finest years in tennis history and he added big improvements to his game in the off-season. But, the longevity clock is ticking against him. His style of play asks too much from his body. Eventually, the grinding will take its toll. It would be a miracle if he replicates or surpasses his wins from last year. While Fed is a very old 27 due to the miles on his body, Rafa is a very old 22, as well. Remember, Rafa has been pounding the pro circuit since the age of 15. But, Fed's balletic game is easier on his joints. So, his later years should be more productive than Nadal's.
Roger could improve his overall athletic prowess and stamina. This would take some additional sweat, but not a lot. Gil Reyes helped Andre Agassi play his best tennis in the second half of his career by boosting his conditioning to peak performance. He could do the same for Fed though at the moment Reyes is working as a coaching consultant for adidas (you saw how his efforts helped Fernando Verdasco Down Under).
Rafa's left arm forced players to shore up their runaround forehands cross-court. Raja has one of the best in the business. However, his illness strangled his footwork and shot execution. This year, Fed's footwork is back, which is a very good sign. He has more work to do to rebuild his confidence and locker room fear factor, but he's well on his way. Mono reduced the potency of his formidable forehand. Last year, Rafa's backhand cross-court was the best shot in the game. The key to Fed retrieving his crown is whether he can routinely pass Rafa again from both sides.
The unique nature of Rafa's challenge to Raja requires he do something special just to deal with him. In this regard, he should build a Rafa-Racquet. Fed doesn't use a dampener. He misses many returns due to the sheer force of Nadal's serve and the torque he puts on the ball. Federer probably doesn't like the feel he gets from a dampener. But, he has to overcome aesthetics to create an answer to the super Spaniard. It's reported Rafa uses very stiff strings with low tension. His stiff racquet has no leather grip — and a very small grip — wrapped by three overgrips. In effect, he uses a club, albeit a light-weight club he can whip through the hitting zone, not a racquet. Roger has to counter this stick if he wants to beat Nadal on a regular basis.
Federer uses a hybrid string, like many players on tour today. While this may work against the field, it may be a bad choice against Rafa. The combination of gut and nylon guarantees a loosening of string tension at different rates. When playing Rafa, every little issue is essential. It could spell the difference between making or missing critical shots. You have to fight fire with fire. Therefore, it's highly suggested he use either all gut or all nylon (preferably) in his racquets when playing Nadal. Also, he should string them a pound or two tighter for more control.
There's nothing more important than footwork in matches with Rafa. To enhance Fed's footwork, it's strongly suggested he have special tennis shoes made which are lighter than the ones he usually wears. When he puts on the new shoes, he'll have the feeling his footwork was crisper, which should boost his confidence. The lighter shoes would be helpful in long matches and steamy conditions.
Finally, Raja has to realize the tennis gods are on his side. His sweeter game will produce more majors for him because Rafa simply can't continue his rumbling style forever. Nadal has made changes to his game in an effort to shorten points and lengthen his career. But, the hands of time will be unkind to the Raging Bull, whose knees are already feeling the aches and pains from his physical style of play.
If he's patient, Roger will get his groove back soon. It's all just a matter of time.
Tennis Week contributor Franklin L. Johnson has been an avid tennis player for more than 40 years and has written about the sport for two decades. The New York City native and former No. 2 singles player on his company team competing in a corporate league vividly recalls losing a marathon match at Forest Hills in the 1970s (perhaps that explains why he continues to duck a long-awaited match with TW staffer). He is a published poet.
